Theta-E Technology

Numerical weather prediction & observation applied to weather- and climate-linked markets.

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What we do

Theta-E Technology provides liquidity in weather- and climate-linked event contracts on regulated exchanges. Near-surface temperature, wind and precipitation are shaped by processes such as sea breezes, frontal passages, boundary-layer mixing and organized convection, which act over a few kilometers and a few hours. We combine high-resolution numerical weather prediction with surface observations as they arrive, and update our view of each contract as new information comes in.

Figure 1 shows an example forecast over the northeastern United States. It was computed on a global variable-resolution mesh that is refined to about 3 km over the region and coarsens to 60 km elsewhere (Figure 2).

We trade only our own capital. Over time we intend to apply the same methods to other weather-sensitive markets.

Figure 1. A 28-hour high-resolution forecast over the northeastern United States, initialized at 00 UTC on 17 July 2026 and shown every 15 minutes; dots mark selected cities. (a) Temperature at 925 hPa (shading) and mean sea-level pressure (contours every 2 hPa). (b) Simulated maximum radar reflectivity. (c) Outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, which resembles an infrared satellite image: cold cloud tops appear bright. (d) Precipitable water (shading) and wind at 850 hPa (arrows). Research output, not an official forecast.
Two maps of cell spacing: a globe on which the mesh is finest over the northeastern United States and coarsest elsewhere, and a regional map of individual hexagonal cells growing from east to west.
Figure 2. The variable-resolution global mesh used for the forecast in Figure 1 (835,586 cells). (a) Cell spacing over the globe: about 3 km over the northeastern United States, increasing smoothly to 60 km beyond roughly 4,000 km from the center of refinement. (b) Individual cells across part of the transition zone, west of the refined region.